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DETERMINANTS OF THE UPSWING PHASE IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN REAL ESTATE GROWTH CYCLE
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Marika Franken, Jonathan Z. Bloom, Rousseau Lötter 
Abstract
Understanding and predicting cycles in real estate prices would allow investors to maximise their investment in real estate. This paper builds on the work of a previous study and includes a regression analysis of the upswing phase of the residential real estate growth cycle, which is intended to identify potential leading indicators of an upswing phase in the residential real estate cycle. The results for the upswing phase indicate that house prices, interest rates, growth in household consumption, growth in the South African All Share Index and growth in the Rand-Dollar exchange rate, all lagged by one quarter could be considered to predict the upswing phase of house prices.
Keywords: Growth Cycle, Upswing Phase
How to cite this paper: Franken, M., Bloom, J.Z., & Lötter, R. (2012). Determinants of the upswing phase in the South African real estate growth cycle. Corporate Ownership & Control, 9(3-4), 491-500. https://doi.org/10.22495/cocv9i3c4art7
