PROGNOSTIC SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH IN PLANNING AND SUCCESSFUL MANAGEMENT OF ORGANIZATIONS IN THE SECURITY SECTOR

How to cite this paper: Maloku, A., Kastrati, S., Gabela, O., & Maloku, E. (2022). Prognostic scientific research in planning and successful management of organizations in the security sector. Corporate & Business Strategy Review, 3 (2), 138–150. The research problem is expressed in the multifaceted question of the complexity of the meaning of planning and management of organizations in the security sector and the necessary conditionality of the essential role and importance of prognostic scientific research in the design and adoption of valid plans and planning activities with the aim of a successful management process of organizations operating in the security sector. The main research findings of the work are primarily reflected in the role and importance of prognostic scientific research in valid planning with the aim of successful management and functioning of organizations operating in the security sector. To achieve the research objective a qualitative approach is used (Abdalla, Ibrahim, Lasyoud, & Warsame, 2022, p. 173). Such research enables us to obtain relevant knowledge with the help of scientific methods and research techniques — scientific knowledge about the elements of social reality and to apply such knowledge for the future planning activities of the organization, which helps in the successful management of organizations. This paper contributes to this field from the perspective (Sariyev, 2022, p. 346) of the security sector, the work of criminologists, victimologists, experts in the field of security sciences, lawyers, and others, who are engaged in researching the impact of security phenomena on the design of action plans and management in organizations which are within the security sector.

The research problem is expressed in the multifaceted question of the complexity of the meaning of planning and management of organizations in the security sector and the necessary conditionality of the essential role and importance of prognostic scientific research in the design and adoption of valid plans and planning activities with the aim of a successful management process of organizations operating in the security sector. The main research findings of the work are primarily reflected in the role and importance of prognostic scientific research in valid planning with the aim of successful management and functioning of organizations operating in the security sector. To achieve the research objective a qualitative approach is used (Abdalla, Ibrahim, Lasyoud, & Warsame, 2022, p. 173). Such research enables us to obtain relevant knowledge with the help of scientific methods and research techniques -scientific knowledge about the elements of social reality and to apply such knowledge for the future planning activities of the organization, which helps in the successful management of organizations. This paper

INTRODUCTION
Contemporary society and social events function on the principles of globalization and global movements in all spheres of life. One of the important segments of such a society is the functionality of organizations in various fields, including the field of security. The functionality of organizations largely depends on a series of adequate steps that should be taken within the organization itself, but the primary task is the question of planning all activities in the organization. By planning activities in the functioning of the organization, one of the basic goals of the organization is achieved, i.e., the successful management of the organizations themselves is achieved.
During the scientific forecast, Gabela (2019) says that it is necessary to review the reports and results of previous research, define the main goals of the research and take into account where the main direction of forecasting the phenomenon should be focused. Any research with a tendency to predict and forecast is preceded by the research of given phenomena that took place in the near and distant past as well as in the present. In this way, knowledge is collected about this phenomenon, and certain conclusions and judgments are made in relation to its manifestation and tendencies of growth and development.
Prognostic scientific research should meet some criteria, such as a) to be based on previous scientific phenomena; b) they are expedient, that is, that they start from a certain goal; c) order reigns in the world, not chaos; d) planning leads to the prediction of future events (although there are some opinions that prediction is part of planning); e) it is realized by a certain scientific method; f) it is possible to design a database with an assessment of available parameters, etc. (Zelenika, 2000, pp. 115-116).
In terms of research, their types, and bearing in mind the importance and role of security phenomena, -prognostic research is especially important. It is primarily about scientific, but also professional research, which correctly applies methodological-methodical principles based on methodology that necessarily apply science and profession and thus complement each other‖ (Gabela, 2019, p. 232).
The overall planning and management process in the security sector should be based on relevant scientific, methodological (professional), and concrete-operational research. Each of these types of research has its value in the field of science and profession, but hierarchically graded in importance, scientific research would take precedence. We have several types of scientific research, and one of the most important such research is prognostic scientific research. Prognostic scientific research must be conducted in all sectors of the security system in order to more efficiently function and achieve the basic tasks for which the security sector is established. The key lies in the fact that such research is aimed at predicting possible future sources of security threats in various spheres of society, but also finding the best solutions to adequately act on the identified security problems and prevent such behaviors.
The sources of endangering the security system are very diverse and numerous. That is why prognostic research, especially scientific research, must play a significant role in the planning process of any system of society, including the security system. The security system itself is a very complex institutional system that includes several subsystems: security, defense, intelligence, civil protection, etc., and its success is reflected in undertaking a series of activities in the short, medium, and long term.
Precisely because of the above, the subject of this paper is to consider the scientific perspectives of prognostic research in the application of research results for sound planning in the security sector and related to the successful management of security organizations. Forecasting research should respond to the different priorities and objectives set by a heterogeneous and complex system, such as the security system. Due to the specifics of the study's subject, different research methods and techniques are used to gain knowledge about the prognosis adequate for phenomena that have an impact on the security situation of a particular society. It is a complex research subject. Namely, modern scientific researches confirm and prove the inseparable relationship of theory, i.e., scientific theory -methodology -research practice -theory (scientific theory). Namely, the formulation of the theory makes it possible to arrive at forecasts of new phenomena that at first glance, without the theory, were unrelated to the original empirical regularity (Pavić & Šundalić, 2021, p. 54).
Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to point out the basic issues of prognostic research in relation to the process of planning and management in the security sector, first of all: the concept of planning in the security sector as the subject of prognostic research, as well as the relationship between science and scientific predictions in the planning process, and thereby managing future security flows in the security sector.
In addition, the goals of the research included in this work (Maloku, 2015, p. 29) are to collect knowledge about security phenomena, the tendencies of their occurrence and, based on such knowledge, make a valid forecast about phenomena that are the subject of interest, which will be the basis for the actions of organizations in the security sector, i.e., making action plans and successful management of organizations. Therefore, based on this, it is concluded that the goal of prognostic scientific research is to provide a precise scientific forecast with the tendencies and probability of the occurrence and development of phenomena that are important for the successful adoption of plans in the security sector and the successful management of security processes in society.
The main findings of this paper should contribute to and initiate not only scientific workers, but also experts from practice, to launch a series of research projects in the future with the aim of obtaining relevant (scientific) knowledge about forecasting -scientific forecasting in the sphere of security events and, based on such collected knowledge, be able to adequately implement security plans and manage organizations in the security sector.
The remainder of this article is structured as follows. Section 2 reviews the relevant literature. Section 3 presents the methodology used to conduct the study. Section 4 presents the results and discussion of the results and Section 5 concludes the study.

LITERATURE REVIEW
The success of research is the cornerstone of the development of any society in all its spheres, including the security sector. The condition of all is theoretical knowledge -necessary for good research, and any new research should be judged not only by the contribution it makes to the transformation of the situation but also by the contributions it can make to scientific knowledge of social phenomena‖ (Gilli, 1974, p. 245). One of the social phenomena that requires constant research is security as an unavoidable category of society. An important dimension of security is its prediction in the future, tendencies of origin and development, and successful planning.
In the work "Uloga i Značaj Prognostičkih Istraživanja u Ekonomiji" (Gabel, 2019), the researcher dealt with prognostic scientific research, but within the framework of economic sciences. He states: -Due to the importance of the economy in the overall socio-economic and political life of a country, it is very important to look at scientific perspectives, especially prognostic research and the application of research results in the positive development of the economy and economic relations in a country. Prognostic research should respond to different priorities and goals set before them by a heterogeneous and complex system, such as an economic system determined by numerous internal and external factors. At the same time, due to the specificity of the study"s subject, different research methods and techniques are used in order to gain knowledge about the forecast adequate for economic phenomena that have an impact on the overall state of the economy of a country‖ (p. 234).
The importance of scientific forecasting is best proved by the work entitled "Uvodna Reč" (Milosavljevic, 2016) where the author pointed out the following in his opening remarks: -We believe that prognostic research is extremely important for the development of our society, but also the development of any society. The reason for that is that many factors affect the development of society and all those that are important need to be known‖ (p. 3). Every research of the future is preceded by the research of given phenomena that took place in the recent and distant past but also in the present. In that way, knowledge about that phenomenon is collected and certain conclusions and judgments are made in relation to its manifestation and tendencies of growth and development. After that, the basic task of futurological research is approached, i.e., the most accurate forecast of the future development and manifestation of the researched phenomenon. In principle, these should be -inspired realistic constructions of the probable future‖ (Termiz, 2009, p. 249).
Predicting the future behavior and movement of a phenomenon depends on the known explanations of a certain phenomenon and its relations and causality with other phenomena as well as relations and relations within itself.
Prediction is the highest goal of scientific knowledge (Vuković & Štrbac, 2019). In the forecast, the primary task is to -predict the dependent variable, i.e., its movement‖ (Vuković & Štrbac, 2019, p. 19). For this prediction to be possible, -it is necessary to fully clarify the question of the connection and causality of the dependent variable, both independent and from all other variables that are related to it, (such as intervening, mediating, and others, prognostic purposes use, e.g., regression direction parameter). In the forecast, the dependent variable is presented as a criterion and the independent variable as a predictor‖ (Skelić, 2011, p. 37).
When it comes to prognostic research, it can be stated that, in the old days, it was futurological research of some reality.
-Every futurological research also encounters difficulties in its realization. There are several difficulties, but they are primarily related to the scope of facts and data based on which research and forecasting are performed. For the prediction to be successfully implemented, it is necessary to have a significant number of relevant facts. However, a special question is whether such facts are interpreted in the most correct way, i.e., whether they are interpreted in such a way that they can be a reliable basis for the prognostic conclusion of the investigated case. Regardless of the availability of facts and their interpretation, prediction is based on hypothetical theories as well as the laws of probability and logic. The important fact in this process is to distinguish between what is predicted and what is predicted‖ (Gabela, 2016, p. 388).
From the aspect of prognostic research, in the work titled "Filozofsko-Metodološki Značaj Futurologije Za Istraživanje Suvremenog Društva" (Krcić, 2016), the following is pointed out: -Futurology or study of the future is defined as predicting future events based on existing conditions. In this way, futurology tells us how today"s changes (or their absence) become tomorrow"s reality. Themes and methods include possible, probable or desirable variations or alternative transformations of social or "natural" phenomena (independent of human influence)‖ (pp. 249-250).
Namely, the forecast is interested in cases that abound with numerous information and that can be of different complexity, scope, intensity, and duration. These cases must be complete and must have a certain relationship and connection with the environment, but -which are clearly different from the environment‖ (Termiz & Milosavljević, 1999, p. 472).
Scientific forecasting helps to achieve better results in any sector. The policy of determining the results of work and the reward system is an important condition for building any successful organization. It is necessary to abandon the outdated approach in which criticism prevails and to accept the method of praise, which can be a strong motivating factor. It is necessary for security officers to be -armed‖ with the knowledge that is supported by information about current trends in the field of security. This is one of the basic preconditions for successful work in a police organization (Masleša, 1999, pp. 343-352). The scientific forecast should serve for successful planning in the security sector. This is also a condition for successfully combating crime. Otherwise, it can be said about criminality that -in theory, there are several attempts to define criminality. But there are three areas that consider more fully the phenomenology and essence of this social phenomenon. These are legal, sociological, and criminological thought‖ (Abazović, 2010, p. 17).
The importance of planning in the security sector is best shown by the fact that, when it comes to planning, it is one of the basic principles in criminology. Thus, it is said that planning disciplines -criminal workers, provides criticism and self-criticism, enables timely identification of shortcomings and gaps… The application of criminology is inextricably linked with the realization of learning about planning as a method of highly organized behavior at the modern scientific level‖ (Vodinelić, 1970, p. 12). The same is confirmed by Korajlić and Dautbegović (2012), who state the basic criminal principles in the work "Osnovi Kriminalistike" and one of those principles is the Principle of Planning and Methodology of Action. This -principle requires that any action in a particular criminal case must be studied and planned before it can be taken. The main reason for this lies in the character of the modern fight against crime with the application of numerous complex and dynamic processes‖ (p. 36).
In the work "Sistemi Privatne Sigurnosti" (Ahić, 2009), the reputable researcher states that -the plan of measures and activities is based on politicalsecurity assessment‖ (p. 21).
By the way, we can say that security is -a term that in the broadest sense implies the absence of potential and real dangers for the individual and society‖ (Abazović, 2002, p. 250).
Management of organizations in the security sector was covered by the work "Uloga Sigurnosnog Menadžmenta na Koncipiranju Strategije Ispitivanja Stanja Sigurnosti u Preduzećima Za Vrijeme Krize" (Gabela & Malkić, 2020), where it is stated: -The security of every organization, that is, a business, is the basic principle of survival and prosperity, and management must pay special attention to that segment. Different organizations face different challenges and threats. Depending on the size, complexity and activity of an organization, the risks to which they are exposed are also different. Organizations whose activity is, for example, culture, economy, etc. and organizations whose activity is a dedicated military industry are not exposed to the same risks. All of these are factors that decisively influence the concrete measures that should be taken by security management. These are complex and demanding decisions‖ (p. 89).

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The significance of this paper lies in the importance of the problem it deals with, that is, the importance of the very nature of the topic related to modern prognostic research in the security sector for successful planning.
Because of the research intricacy, numerous approaches have been modified to help each other solve the problem (Maloku, Qerimi, & Maloku, 2022, p. 176). The scientific research in this paper, in terms of its type, will be conducted and realized as methodological research, which is basically theoretical.
The subject of such research is multifaceted, and its complexity stems from the complexity of security phenomena as such a methodological approach that in its starting point requires the determination of the problem -the subject of the research and the determination of the choice of certain and appropriate methods that determine the subject of the research, methods, and techniques of collection and processing data, and appropriate presentation of knowledge gained through the scientific research in the form of this paper.
The present paper uses a qualitative approach (Fekadu, 2020, p. 54). From the aspect of the application of research methods, we can say that the qualitative method of document content analysis (Maloku, 2020, p. 323) was used for the needs of the paper from the following scientific fields: methodology, security, criminology, criminology, etc. In addition to this method, general scientific methods were used: deductive, hypotheticaldeductive method, comparative, theoretical, and meta-analysis (Maloku, 2020, p. 170), but also all the basic methods of scientific knowledge that modern science methodology knows, namely: analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, concretization, abstraction and generalization. When choosing these methods, the factors were decisive: the type of research, then the subject and objectives of the research, and finally the discipline of the research. It should be pointed out that those methods were chosen that best correspond to the knowledge of the provisions of the research subject and that penetrate the very core of the research problem. Otherwise, the term methods of groups of authors (Michon, Mesihović, & Wieczorek, 1991) implies a mode of research approach that leads to knowledge of reality. These are primarily: analysis of statistical data, observation, analysis of documents, survey research, etc. The study is conducted by using a doctrinal approach (Roisah, Rahayu, Darminto, Zainol, & Suryani, 2022, p. 63).
Namely, the basic paradigmatic point of departure in this research is based on the axiom of methodology, which is expressed through the position on the mutual relationship that the subject of the research essentially determines the research methods.
Data sources in the research are theoreticaldocuments -which are publicly presented in a certain form and thus available to the public, as relevant contemporary methodological literature in the field of social sciences, especially security sciences. The selection of documents and relevant contemporary methodological literature will be chosen following the requirements of selecting a purposive research sample.
Since this study was not empirical, it had many limitations requiring further research (Singh, 2021). Therefore, we rightly recommend that future studies also focus on empirical studies for prognostic research regarding the planning and management process in the security sector.
In the end, it should be stated that during the research, qualitative data on the subject of the research were obtained and their complementarity was ensured. The reliability of data sources was crucial for drawing relevant conclusions based on scientific premises.

Basic characteristics of planning in the security sector
Planning in all segments of social life plays an extremely important role, but this is especially true in the security sector. Namely, planning is the process of designing future decisions and setting goals as well as the activities of any organization within a certain planned period for the future. The implementation of such planned activities depends on many different factors that prevail in the given circumstances, but efforts should be made to fulfill the planned tasks. The fulfillment of the planned tasks largely depends on the knowledge available in the given circumstances, and the knowledge is obtained by conducting various types of research. From the aspect of making plans in the security sector, prognostic scientific research is especially important.

The concept and objectives of security sector planning
Security sector planning is a complex activity that should ensure that the security sector in any country functions successfully and that it uses human resources, material, and technical resources, and other infrastructure at its disposal purposefully and adequately. The main goal of planning is the successful execution of legally prescribed activities within the established concept of the functioning of the security sector. This concept should be adapted to the needs and capabilities of security authorities so that they can successfully respond to modern security challenges (terrorism, migrant crises, drug trafficking, etc.). Plans enable entities to understand their role in the entire process of creating a security climate to successfully achieve the intended goals because without clear goals and adequate plans it can lead to irrational spending of resources (human, material, etc.). Only through planned action the motivation of performing the tasks of various entities involved in solving security issues, starting from the simplest to the most complex security issues and problems, can be positively influenced. This increases the success of the realization of setting priorities, and without precisely set priorities and strategic goals, there can be a certain kind of confusion in solving security problems that are expressed in modern world trends.
The plan -usually means conscious thoughtcreative activity, which precedes the execution of each task, and includes determining goals and finding the best way to achieve them‖ (Stevanović, 1999, p. 97). When making a plan, it is necessary to rely on previous plans, from which one should learn a lesson, i.e., consider their good and bad sides, i.e., successfully or unsuccessfully realized planned goals. In this way, we manage to realistically anticipate all the resources needed for the planned activities and goals to be achieved. Such plans enable the valid identification of the necessary tasks and the selection of resources for their implementation. This enables successful control of the achieved results through a comparative approach to the planned and achieved set goals. If the results are not at a satisfactory level, it is necessary to correct future activities in the security sector, which requires a correction in planning, i.e., the planning document.
Therefore, planning is a process that includes several different activities that are intertwined and interdependent and that require mutual coordination of future activities. Such planning in the security system is a specific activity that is continuously undertaken by state administration entities in charge of security. This determines the goals of future activities and ways to achieve these goals as well as entities that are carriers of certain activities in the plan, and the ultimate goal of planning is reflected in the fact that the plan predicts what needs to be done in the future based on what we know from the past and present. This means that one should try to go one step ahead of the event, anticipating its events in the future.
Namely, in the security sector, to predict an event, research must be a precursor to planning. Such research should include those actions that are planned to concretize the imagined research process to obtain exact data on the subject of research. Based on that, it can be said that planning is -an intellectual and professional activity, aimed at connecting scientific ideas with practical activities of research subjects… The scope of planning is conditioned by scientific ideas, mostly by subject, hypotheses, and research methods‖ (Milošević & Milojević, 2001, p. 176).

Basic types, content, and characteristics of plans in the security sector
In the security sector, with all its specifics and heterogeneity, planning is key to the success of the functioning of this segment of society. It is a process that includes the following resources within its activities: personnel, material and technical resources, time, task execution plan, etc. When it comes to the planning process, we could point out the position of Karl Popper, who was -particularly interested in decision-making processes in a society in which there is a constant lack of complete information. He wondered how we can know that the decisions we make, under the assumption of free will, are well-founded‖ (Jović, 2016, p. 137). This is exactly what indicates the need for permanent research and on that basis of planning activities for decisions to be properly based.
Today, there is no consensus among the authors regarding the classification of plans and planning, so there are various divisions of plans. If we take as a criterion the time period, we can divide the plans into short-term, medium-term, and long-term, but there is also no harmonized position regarding their duration. The most commonly used period is short-term plans, those that are adopted for a period of up to two years, medium-term plans are those that cover a period of two to five years, and long-term plans are for a period of five or more years.
Then, we have a division into daily planning, periodic planning, and planning according to the indicated need (ad hoc planning). Plans can also be basic, additional, and auxiliary, and according to the criteria of the organizational level, they can be strategic, coordinating, and operational (Stevanović, 1999, pp. 99-102).
One type of plan that is especially imposed is strategic plans that are adopted in all spheres of social life, and therefore in the field of security. These plans define visions and missions that are identified as priorities. After that, the goals to be achieved (general and special) are defined as well as the way of achieving the intended goals. In addition, these plans should identify possible risks that may affect the achievement of set goals, but also indicators that will be indicators of success in accordance with the plan.
When it comes to planning in the security sector, one should start from the fact of what the security sector does. Based on that, planning in the field of internal security (planning in the field of internal affairs), planning in the field of defense, planning in the field of civil protection, planning in the field of intelligence, etc., are emphasized in terms of their content as well as other plans, and include strategic framework, vision, and mission of institutions, participants and partners, basic program commitments as well as the framework for implementation of the plan and evaluation of results.
Successful planning achieves certain interests of society, and interests, in general, -can be classified into permanent, long-term, medium-term, short-term, and current. It is not difficult to conclude that prognostic research can greatly contribute to the identification of lasting, long-term, and medium-term interests, i.e., that without a valid forecast of the dynamics of interest, it is not possible to determine them‖ (Blagojević, 2016, p. 107).
It can be concluded that successful planning is very important for a stable, long-lasting, and functional security system, and the question arises as to what it is based on and from which such planning is derived. Such plans must be based on the following:  detailed analysis of the security sector;  considering the overall security situation and the immediate security environment as well as security challenges in a particular region and world;  study of policy guidelines related to the security sector and implementation of security policy adopted by the competent authorities of a country;  scientific forecast of the security situation and the development of determining security factors manifested in a modern democratic society;  setting real and necessary priorities in its work during the functioning of the security sector;  elaboration of methodology and application of operational-professional methods of work for the more successful functioning of the security sector and giving certain recommendations important from the aspect of security for future successful professional work of bodies in charge of security;  selection of the best and most expedient solution for which it is justified, both from the scientific and professional aspects, to believe that it will successfully respond to all security challenges and risks.
From the above, we can see that it imposes a number of measures that are necessary for the successful adoption of plans, and one of the measures is based on a quality scientific forecast. The reason is that the available documents and strategies do not always explicitly state all security risks and challenges, so prognostic scientific research imposes itself a key role in gaining knowledge of future security risks facing modern society. Thus, in a scientifically adequate way, relevant facts are collected that affect the security system and reveal the sources of potential threats (natural disasters, terrorism, migration, epidemics, etc.). The scientific forecast achieves that the security sector has the necessary capacity to confront security risks and the ability to carry out planned missions and assigned tasks.
4.2. Importance of prognostic scientific research for the planning and management process in the security sector The prognostic scientific research that is the subject of our consideration is in relative agreement with the overall scientific basis of research in general. However, having in mind the specifics of the subsystem that makes up the security system in the overall system of social reality, its purpose and goals, it can be said that there are certain differences between the overall system and the security system. However, taking into account all factors, methods, and techniques of conducting research, prognostic research should have a number of common features and methods in the process of obtaining the necessary research results for successful planning in the security sector.
Among the prominent authors who have dealt with prediction, we can point out the scientist and futurologist Arthur C. Clark. In addition to Clark, among futurologists, we can highlight the following scientists: Thomas Robert Maithus, John Fremlin, Kim Drexler, and others (Krcić, 2016, p. 256). Namely, -forecasting and forecasting has an extremely important place in all types of basic, applied and development research, in all types of educational and scientific industries, in all types of educational and scientific systems and in all fields of all scientific fields‖ (Zelenika, 2016a, p. 169).
The study of the overall social reality and -systematized and verified scientific knowledge are the basis for the discovery of cause-and-effect relationships between social phenomena and the prediction of the course and consequences of social processes in the future. Outcome forecasting is a very complex and complicated process and problem in society…‖ (ĐorĎević, 2016, p. 88). We can say that research begins with noticing the research problem (Metzinger & Toth, 2020, p. 27). Furthermore, the cognitive scientific process in prognostic research starts from the collection, description, and explanation of empirical data and goes to abstract theoretical models of trends in the development of social reality.
The issue of forecasting -forecasts of a phenomenon -must be taken seriously into consideration, which is necessary for almost all segments of society (politics, security, human resources, governance, etc.), because the successful development of any segment of society largely depends on successful future forecasts, development, and action of that phenomenon. At the same time, it is necessary to review the reports and results of previous research, define the main goals and take into account where the main direction of forecasting the phenomenon should be focused. Every research of the future is preceded by the research of given phenomena that took place in the recent and distant past and the present. In that way, knowledge about that phenomenon is collected and certain conclusions and judgments are made in relation to its manifestation and tendencies of growth and development. After that, the basic task of prognostic research is approached, i.e., the most accurate forecast of future development and manifestation of the researched phenomenon. In principle, these should be -inspired realistic constructions of the probable future‖ (Termiz, 2009, p. 249). Research establishes a connection between thinking (thinking) and experiential experience. Thus, -there is a distance of research between scientific discovery and the experiential experiences to which it relates. Therefore, just as research is needed to reach a generalization, so is research needed to reach its concretization‖ (Vujević, 2006, p. 23).
Prognostic research must be based on the objectivity of scientific knowledge. -Objectivity is the most general characteristic of any and not only theoretical science…. Objectivity has two aspects in science. In the first, a certain attitude towards reality is expressed, and in the second, some basic formal features of scientific knowledge‖ (Milić, 1965, pp. 183-184). Their importance, i.e., valid forecasts in planning the security situation in the security sector of a company lies in the fact that they must provide answers that will later serve as the basis of the established concept for strategy, doctrine, and plans in the security sector as the most important operational documents (Blagojević, 2016, p. 111).

The concept of prognostic scientific research in the process of scientific knowledge of safety phenomena
Research is a process whose basic role is not only in the cognition of something unknown but in the research process, one should always start from the already acquired knowledge so that the research can be directed in the direction of cognition of the unknown. It is especially difficult to research social phenomena and within them security phenomena that are of interest to the security sector. Namely, when researching security phenomena, it is necessary to start from general theoretical and methodological frameworks and principles in order to arrive at objective and realistic indicators of the manifestation of various factors that indicate the state of security. The research must thoroughly and systematically cover the subject of research, which will enable a systematic way of collecting exact indicators of the security situation. Thus, research, especially scientific research, leads to certain scientific knowledge, scientific knowledge of future events, which should be in the service of man and the creation of a stable and secure environment.
It should be noted that science, as a continuous human activity, has five basic functions: -description, classification -typology, scientific discovery, scientific explanation, and scientific prognosis‖ (Milosavljević & Radosavljević, 1988, p. 57). We see that the scientific forecast is the fifth, the last and greatest goal of scientific knowledge, or scientific achievement in general. The question that arises on this basis is: When and at what level of scientific knowledge do we arrive at a scientific forecast and how to apply it in the planning process in the security sector? However, in order to obtain a successful answer, it is necessary to indicate what scientific forecasting is, i.e., what prognostic scientific research is. In short, these are such researches that should be based on the knowledge offered by the theory of a certain science.
Why is that so? We find the answer in the fact that the important question of every theory -is its ability in scientific futurology and predictability in the future. It must have the ability to give its prognostic views on the phenomenon or phenomena that the theory considers‖ (Gabela, 2018, p. 147). It is, in essence, an imaginary hypothetical position on the essence of the problem and the subject of research, which is obtained based on theoretical knowledge and adopted new knowledge obtained through conducted scientific research.
In modern science, a number of questions are asked regarding prognostic scientific research such as: What factors influence successful scientific prognosis? What are the methods used in prognostic scientific research? Which methods give the best results? etc. In addition to the above, a number of other issues can be mentioned that provoke constant discussion and debate in scientific circles. Otherwise, the basic knowledge of the terms forecast, predict, forecasting, predictable, predictability, prediction, future, and futurology, represent a -scientific paradigm for defining the term scientific method of forecasting…. Scientific methods of forecasting are a system of logical, objective, systematic, reliable, verifiable… rules, principles, procedures, procedures, laws…, immanent to interconnected, quantitative and qualitative scientific methods, which in micro, macro and global basic, applied and development research, based on explicit, implicit, disciplinary, interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary… knowledge, knowledge, skills… about certain phenomena, events, phenomena from the past and present and about forecasting, enable the study of real possibilities, probabilities… realization of certain events, scenarios… in the near and/or far future‖ (Zelenika, 2016b, p. 234). Some events and phenomena can be predicted, that is, their occurrence can be predicted.
But, there are no predictions -that can be said with certainty to be true, and its cognitive ability becomes weaker the longer the period of predictable occurrence. In addition, it can be said that certain determining factors influence the occurrence or process as well as the fact that prediction depends on the ability of the researcher himself‖ (Gabela, 2016, p. 387). One of the factors that influence the phenomenon or process are demographic changes. These changes are studied by demography, which is -the science that deals with the study of population factors, such as population size, race, gender, location, occupation, population density, number of inhabitants, sexual orientation, ethnicity, social class, etc.‖ (Babić-Hodović, Domazet, & Kurtović, 2018, p. 41).
Zelenika (2016b, p. 230) points out that forecasting is as old as humanity is because for a person to survive and have to live, he had to plan, predict and forecast. However, forecasting methods began to be developed and affirmed in the 19th century. In the 21st century, conventional and scientific forecasting methods are used, which can be both qualitative and quantitative. We can also say that the forecast -means determining or predicting the outcome of a phenomenon… which is already in progress or is expected to be manifested in the future based on certain scientific methods of collecting data and information about this phenomenon‖ (ĐorĎević, 2016, p. 91).
Some authors have different views on prognostic scientific research, i.e., scientific predictions. Ilić (as cited Šuvaković, 2016) points out the threefold dimension of scientific prediction: first, it is anticipating new knowledge, then testing scientific theories, and finally, it is an instruction for conducting an imaginary research procedure based on a presumed hypothetical fund. While Zaječaranović (as cited Šuvaković, 2016) points out that the subject of scientific prediction is -in any case something that is in the future‖, and renowned scientist and researcher Milosavljević (as cited Šuvaković, 2016) states that the possibility of giving an accurate scientific forecast directly depends on the specific subject of research. In addition, Milosavljević and Radosavljević (1988) state that prognostic research aims to discover tendencies and probabilities of development, and predict the future and measures needed to achieve such a future.
In terms of science, prognostic scientific research should meet, as Zelenika (2000) points out, some criteria mentioned earlier. Zelenika (2000) also states one of the basic divisions of prognostic research into:  short-term -relating to a period of one to two years, and may include shorter periods;  medium-term -covers a period of up to five years;  long-term -includes future research for periods longer than five years, which have threetime groups: a) the first phase of long-term research of the future covering a period of five to twenty years, b) the second phase of long-term research of the future covering a period of about fifty years and c) the third phase of long-term research covering a period of about hundred years.
When it comes to the field of security, it should be borne in mind that: -Regulations (Constitution, laws, decrees, rules, general and special decisions) brought by the legislator in the system of government and authority of the state, cantons, municipalities, companies, institutions, organizations. The provisions of these regulations must be prognostic in two senses:  must prescribe future possible, presumed, required and prohibited, punishable and permissible behaviors;  they must provide that the prescribed norms are applicable and the consequences of those norms‖ (Termiz, 2016, p. 307).
The essence of prognostic research in the security sector is how to successfully plan security processes in order to be able to model activities of preventive, curative, and post-curative action in the security sector and thus successfully respond to security risks and threats. This points us to the correlation between safety and prognostic research, where the results of properly conducted prognostic research can play a key role in combating negative social safety challenges of various types and forms.
The effects of the application of prognostic research in the planning process in the field of safety can be differently graded depending on the achieved goal. In any case, they can be multiple, because they contribute to the realization of the most important functions of society and the functioning of vital interests and goals embodied in the security system.
Prognostic scientific research conducted for the purpose of planning in the security sector is influenced by a number of factors that significantly determine its dynamics and course. These factors are different, depending on the scope and complexity of the research security problem, the subject of research, the availability of qualified research staff, the duration of research, and other issues that dictate the course and content of research in the security field. For a security phenomenon to be successfully predicted, it is necessary to: a) have precise knowledge of the state of the basic factors in the security authorities and other participants in the given conditions; b) have knowledge of the tendencies of development of participants and their actions and c) have ability to draw inductive-deductive conclusions in changes in the phenomenon in the future (Milošević & Milojević, 2001, p. 139). Therefore, the inevitable condition for performing scientific prediction is the knowledge of the security phenomenon, understanding of its development, and manifestation, its connections, and relationships, both in interaction with the environment and the nature of the phenomenon itself. Only research that is conducted systematically, accurately and scientifically based, with respect to methodological rules and principles that apply to scientific research, can provide us with a reference scientific forecast of security phenomena that are the subject of interest and research.
Therefore, prognostic research in the security sector should explain security phenomena and processes to successfully plan the preventive and repressive activities of all bodies in charge of legal action in this segment. In particular, this research must address the following facts:  full consideration of the security situation, participants in the event, ways and methods of action, goals, and interests;  reveals the regularities and legality of security phenomena in the overall social process;  predicting the possible development of security phenomena in the future and the behavior of social actors in the given circumstances;  offer certain solutions in the field of security to solve certain social problems for the survival and development of a society.
The prognostic research aims to achieve the goal of detecting trends in the development of security phenomena and anticipating the processes, activities, and measures envisaged in society to prevent and eliminate these phenomena.
When making a scientific forecast of future events, it should be borne in mind that the realization of possible or probable events or scenarios -is inversely proportional to the anticipated time of their realization. This practically means that the real possibility, probability… of the realization of a certain future event, scenario… in the period from 76 to 100 years is four to six times less than the possibility… realization of such an event, scenario… in the period of 6 to 25 years‖ (Zelenika, 2016b, p. 233). Therefore, an important circumstance for prognostic scientific research is the courage to give a scientific forecast for social phenomena, especially safety phenomena as part of social phenomena. The general conclusion is that there is a lack of prognostic scientific predictions of certain phenomena in the long run. There are several reasons for such a relationship. First of all, there is the problem of the dynamism of social phenomena. Then, noting the problems related to their unpredictability, especially in modern social events as well as susceptibility to various influences depending on a number of socio-political and economic circumstances. The ability of researchers, whose research work largely determines the ability of successful forecasting, who need to use one analytical-synthetic approach to study social and security phenomena, cannot be neglected either. Researchers often resort only to describing the state of a phenomenon and giving general views, while mostly avoiding giving precise scientific prognostic conclusions about a security phenomenon, its origin and tendencies of its development, and possible stagnation, when it will occur and what measures should be taken to stagnation and elimination of that phenomenon.
The application of prognostic research methods in the security sector is required from scientists and researchers in addition to professional competencies and many years of experience in scientific and security systems. All this is necessary to avoid mistakes in forecasting certain events in the future. Sources of errors can be, as Zelenika (2016b, p. 239) points out, the following: a) unprofessional competencies of forecasters, b) inconsistent analysis and evaluation of certain phenomena, phenomena in the past and present, c) inadequate choice of the interrelated, qualitative and quantitative scientific method, d) poor quality analysis and assessment of internal and external factors influencing the realization of forecasted events and e) poor management of available potentials, capacities, and resources that were in the function of forecasted events.
Finally, it can be summarized that for successful prognostic research, a comprehensive diagnosis in the field of safety is a necessary condition, which is also based on research. This is how a scientific problem is diagnosed and only by correctly diagnosing the problem its solution and its prediction in the future can be approached. This especially refers to security phenomena, for a successful forecast of which we must have a clear and precise view of the situation in that area in order to be able to predict the tendencies of its development and stagnation.
After a successful forecast, the presentation of plans is sometimes approached.

Prognostic scientific research as an essential condition for successful planning and management in the security sector
Prognostic research helps us to know exactly and to know the objective security reality in order to be able to predict, i.e., forecast all modern sources of security threats and build the ability of proper planning that will enable preventive action of all security factors. It is prognostic research that needs to answer the questions of which models are most effective in the preventive, repressive, and postrepressive phases of confronting security challenges and threats.
When forecasting, it is necessary to adhere to certain forecasting principles. These principles contain the following group of terms: the term predict, the term predictable, and the term predictability (Zelenika, 2016b, 231).
In the practice of research, we have different ways and approaches to research in order to assess the overall security situation and environment and find the best ways for future action in the security sector. To achieve success in this segment, the security sector to have its successful functioning and development must be based on planning that will be based on conducted prognostic scientific research. The above also applies to the management of organizations in the security sector. Otherwise, we can say that the management process is -a complex and complex process consisting of a large number of sub-processes, phases, sub-phases, activities, operations, and procedures‖ (Vukadinović & Jović, 2012, p. 28).
So, the basis of the success of such research requires the application of scientific methods and research techniques as well as the rules of methodology as a science -primarily special methodologies of security sciences. The purpose of planning obtained in this way is to consider the future tasks of the security sector in order to set as realistic goals as possible for the successful functioning of the security sector.
Namely, the security sector is specific in many ways, so the research conducted within that sector has its own specifics. Such research is conducted using a special research methodology -a special methodology of security sciences and it is specific in relation to the methodology of social sciences to the extent that specific security phenomena are in relation to other social phenomena.
Therefore, for the successful development of prognostic research to make valid plans in the security sector, it is necessary to develop a special methodology of security sciences whose scientific work will be on security phenomena as a whole. Termiz (2016, p. 308) points out that the -applied methodology and work methodology‖ of certain segments of action should and can be developed.
From a methodological point of view, for a valid scientific forecast in the security sector, it is necessary to have several stages in the research process for the scientific forecast to be successful. A successful scientific forecast of the security situation and security, in general, can be seen through the following stages in its realization. Side panels (Gabela, 2019, p. 233): 1) Discovery and identification of areas that will serve as a source from which data suitable for scientific forecasting will be collected.
2) Collection of much-needed relevant information on the security situation, both within and outside the borders of a country.
3) Recording of collected data, their systematization, and arrangement, as processing and analysis of collected data. 4) Identifying and fixing the basic points that are important for causing security risks and threats to the socio-economic and legal order, or any other segment of society, and the successful functioning of the rule of law and making such conclusions on such premises. 5) Based on the adopted conclusions, providing a scientific forecast for the most optimal strategic solutions to successfully adopt plans in the security sector.
The first phase of this methodological approach is to identify the area from which relevant data will be collected to access the scientific forecast in the security sector, and it concerns the political, security, economic, social, legal, and other circumstances prevailing in a country. The second phase refers to the collection of data necessary for a successful forecast of future planned actions. Data sources can be varied from scientific and professional institutions, through services dealing with security issues, to intelligence obtained from security services and agencies, but also the work of researchers in the field. The third phase requires good knowledge of methodology, methods, and techniques as well as experiential analytical knowledge and work. In this sense, the services of both methodologists and other scientists and experts in the field of security, politics, law, economics, statistics, etc. can be sought and used. The fourth phase concerns the identification of priorities in the security sector and security threats in this field. The focus should be on real priorities as well as sources of security threats that may disrupt the successful functioning of the security sector. The data collected in this way will be used to draw relevant conclusions. The final realization of this phase of scientific forecasting largely determines the final forecast for the future operation of security agencies.
The last, and most important, phase is the phase of giving a scientific forecast of future security activities, which should serve for the successful adoption of plans in the security sector. This is the last phase of prognostic scientific research that should offer certain options before making plans. Namely, this reflects the importance of prognostic research and its important role in the process that precedes the adoption of plans and the development of planned activities. At this stage, the possible directions necessary for the operation of the security sector to be effective are recorded, and the recommended guidelines thus adopted should be taken as one of the guidelines in adopting plans. It should be borne in mind that if scientific forecasts are inaccurate, it could affect the accuracy of security planning when choosing a solution to eliminate security threats, which could further have severe consequences for the security situation in the country.
We can state that prognostic scientific research must see the real differences between the existing circumstances and the necessary action assumptions needed for the successful functioning of the security system. In this way, the scientific forecast gives valid results in the field of security. If the forecast is not valid, it will necessarily be reflected in bad decisions in making plans, which can ultimately have negative consequences, not only in security but also in other spheres of social life. The more realistic options in setting planned requirements are the key to success when it comes to existing requirements. The scientific forecast in such conditions should provide answers to the most complex questions concerning the development of current and new capabilities of the security sector and adequate answers to all security risks. The final result of the scientific forecast is to obtain an adequate solution for successful planning contained in documents that treat the security situation of a country, all in order to identify sources of endangerment, tendencies of occurrence and development of that threat, as well as a successful counteraction to such negative social phenomena.
The advantage of the application of prognostic scientific research in the security sector is that various types of basic, developmental, and applied research by scientists, experts, experts encourage their creativity, innovation, and creativity to use different methods, procedures, procedures for forecasting certain events and so acquire certain knowledge and insights into the course of events or a possible scenario.

CONCLUSION
The security system is an important segment of the functioning of every state. Its goal is to plan, develop, organize and perform the security function and it is one of the key segments of state administration and the survival of the state as a community. All these goals play an important role, but planning is one of the key elements on which the implementation of the state security policy and the functioning of the security apparatus depend. Planning has the task of ensuring appropriate progress in the security field in order to successfully respond to contemporary socio-political challenges. Therefore, activities in the security sector need to be carried out based on planning all activities based on reliable prognostic scientific research.
Namely, the vital interest of every state is to have a stable and functional security sector, and this can be achieved only through a comprehensive scientific forecast of important factors and facts that are important for its functioning. Factors that affect the functioning of this system can be diverse such as political, economic, cultural, social, international, historical, technical and technological, etc. Therefore, the security authorities must devise a concept and strategy to be implemented. based on prognostic scientific research that will include all relevant subjects of the security system. Such a mode allows us to approach the issue of security problems in a comprehensive, planned, analytical, comprehensive, and modern way.
Prognostic scientific research should be carried out by scientists and experts who possess high educational competencies and research practices. Such knowledge must necessarily be specifically expressed in three areas, namely: 1) adequate knowledge in the fields that are the subject of security sciences, i.e. those issues that are directly dealt with by the security sector (prevention, detection, and investigation of various types of criminal acts, security of protected persons and objects of special importance and interest, maintenance of public order and peace, security of sports manifestation, regulation, and safety of road traffic, etc.); 2) possession of the necessary knowledge in the field of methodology as a science, especially the special methodology of safety sciences, which defines scientific-research procedures when conducting prognostic research, concepts, research methods and techniques, and other issues related to the research process. Otherwise, the methodological procedure consists of certain stages through which the research goes and which are a kind of guarantee about the relevance of the collected knowledge and thus must meet certain criteria such as precision, systematicity, objectivity, and verifiability; 3) having knowledge of the methodology that deals with the study of instruments of action on the security phenomenon, that is, researching how to influence the phenomenon or process in the security sector. The methodology of security phenomenon research implies the application of various methods and research techniques during the research process, and refers to practical procedures.
Therefore, prognostic scientific research must correctly apply knowledge from methodology and methodology, that is, methodological-methodical principles, that is, apply scientific and professional knowledge that complement each other. From a methodological-methodical aspect, a successful scientific forecast should include several segments in order to be able to meet its purpose in terms of adequate planning and management of organizations in the security sector. These segments concern the identification of areas that will serve as a source for data collection as well as their recording, systematization, processing, and analysis. Then, based on the data thus collected, relevant conclusions are made in terms of providing a valid scientific forecast in order to bring the most optimal strategic solutions for the actions of organizations in the security sector.
Therefore, adequate planning and management in the security system, which is based on the scientific forecast, increases the possibility of achieving the set goals, while noticing the shortcomings of the system and eliminating these weaknesses. A valid scientific forecast allows us the flexibility and applicability of the adopted plans aimed at the development and functioning of the security sector. Also, plans adopted at a higher level, based on scientific prognostic research, should be used to adopt lower-level action plans along the vertical line of action in the security sector. All of the above should enable successful decisionmaking in the chain of command and control based on coordinated activities of all entities in charge of the security situation of a country. Decisions must be made in a way that is understandable by those who need to implement them to reduce security threats and challenges in modern society. The basis for making such decisions is precisely prognostic scientific research based on theoretical knowledge and practical and experiential knowledge. Therefore, the basic subjects of the security system have a significant responsibility to timely plan, initiate, and implement prognostic research in order to obtain valid data on the security environment, potentially endangered subjects, methods and means of endangering the security situation, their interests, and objectives as well as the anticipated effects of that threat. Only with such an approach prognostic research can have the desired effect.
Further, when it comes to certain limitations that were reached during the research for this work, we can point out that social phenomena, and especially phenomena of a security nature as a part of social phenomena, are not the same as natural phenomena, because natural phenomena are far easier to measure than social and security phenomena, given that they are the product of a human activity that strives to keep this behavior hidden. Thus, we can say that some security phenomena can be predicted, that is, we can forecast that they will happen, but it should still be noted that there is not always an adequate forecast of some security phenomena that we can say with certainty will happen. Another significant limitation in prognostic research concerns the validity of the results obtained through the research process, that is, the prognostic process itself. What can be said is the fact that the percentage of accuracy of cognitive ability becomes weaker if the time period for which the scientific forecast is made increases.
The third dimension that affects a successful forecast to plan timely and adequately manage organizations in the security sector, is that during the forecast, attention should be paid to the determining factors that can significantly affect the security phenomenon or process. These factors can significantly accelerate its occurrence, they can delay this occurrence or even eliminate it. Factors that determine security phenomena can be different, depending on the scope and complexity of the security phenomenon, and the subject of research, but also qualified personnel trained for prognostic research because the ability of researchers is an important segment of scientific forecasting. Competent researchers need an integral analytical-synthetic approach to study the subject of research and make relevant judgments and conclusions about the investigated phenomenon.
It should have been kept in mind that the basic task of prognostic scientific research is to diagnose a certain phenomenon that should occur in the future, and only if the problem is successfully detected it can be solved. To successfully diagnose a problem, i.e., to conduct research whose tendency is to predict/forecast, it is necessary to conduct research on security phenomena that have occurred in the distant and recent past and, based on such postulates, make a true forecast that will serve for successful planning and management of organizations in the security sector.
Having in mind the presented facts, by organizing, planning, and conducting prognostic scientific research, we come to results that are vital for planning and management in the security sector of any society. Thus, the functioning of the security sector is deeply dependent on prognostic research because as a dynamic social system it is constantly exposed to various social factors whose scope, intensity, and effects are impossible to predict without the successful application of prognostic research. We have various factors of action, from non-criminal (social, political, economic, information, natural disasters, etc.), but also criminal in the form of organized crime, terrorism, etc. The security system must be able to anticipate and meet these challenges through adequate planning activities and making plans in the security sector.