ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FORECAST IN EMERGING MARKETS

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Abstract

This paper uses a forecasting model for real economic activity for a group of emerging economies (Brazil, India, Mexico and Russia) based on the information contained in their capital markets. We forecast the industrial production in emerging markets throughout different time horizons using information contained in stock and fixed-income markets. Our results suggest that fixed-income and stock markets do not reveal information regarding future economic growth in Brazil, Mexico and Russia. In the case of India, the yield spread explain part of the variation of the economic activity, but the stock market does not have predictive power.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Emerging Markets, Forecast

How to cite this paper: Carvalhal, A., & Murillo, M. (2014). Economic activity forecast in emerging markets. Corporate Ownership & Control, 12(1-3), 325-329. https://doi.org/10.22495/cocv12i1c3p1