Strategic foresight for companies

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Abstract

This paper addresses the critical importance of strategic foresight and offers guidance on how to evaluate its implementation. Strategic foresight is defined by three types of thinking (future, system, and exponential), and the key elements of horizon scanning and scenario planning. As chief executive officers (CEOs) express concerns about their companies’ future viability and adaptability to industry changes, strategic foresight emerges as a vital capability. Its structured yet open approach enables the identification and exploration of emerging challenges and opportunities, informing decision-making in uncertain contexts. Effective implementation of strategic foresight entails adopting forward-thinking. horizon scanning, and scenario planning. Scenario planning explores potential futures, while horizon scanning assesses megatrends, weak signals, wild cards, and uncertainties. This paper extends the literature and provides fresh perspectives on how companies can use strategic foresight to identify and address the challenges and opportunities posed by generative artificial intelligence (AI). In particular, the paper emphasizes the ethical dimensions of foresight in the AI context. Drawing insight from the Global Summit on Generative AI (held in San Francisco in April 2023) this paper presents a set of ethical recommendations for effectively navigating AI complexities, including strategies such as red teaming, watermarking, and sandboxing (Li et al., 2023). By cultivating foresight, companies can address emerging trends, navigate uncertainties, mitigate risks, engage their workforce, seek new opportunities, and foster sustainable growth. Hence, it is crucial for the board of directors (BoD) and management to recognize the strategic importance of foresight within the organization and across business sectors.

Keywords: Strategic Foresight, Artificial Intelligence, Red Teaming, Watermarking, Sandboxing

Authors’ individual contributions: Conceptualization — H.G.; Methodology — H.G. and T.X.; Resources — M.C.; Writing — Original Draft — H.G.; Writing — Review & Editing — M.C. and T.X.; Visualization — T.X.; Funding Acquisition — M.C.

Declaration of conflicting interests: The Authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

JEL Classification: G0, G3, M4

Received: 13.07.2023
Accepted: 25.09.2023
Published online: 27.09.2023

How to cite this paper: Grove, H., Clouse, M., & Xu, T. (2023). Strategic foresight for companies. Corporate Board: Role, Duties and Composition, 19(2), 8–14. https://doi.org/10.22495/cbv19i2art1